Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Post-mortem: Winter storm of February 4

I thought I'd take a minute to recap our snowfall forecasts leading up to Tuesday's storm.  The first picture you see is from my shift, Saturday night, February 1.  Always weary of changing computer model forecasts, uncertainty with the forecast track and to keep hype at a minimum, I didn't put forecast totals on the map.  I did feel relatively confident in highlighting areas of the state where I felt the impacts would be greatest.

On Superbowl Sunday, Dean (AM) and then Ross (PM) updated the forecast, this time with amounts as the forecast specifics started to come into more focus.

On Monday, there were a few tweaks here and there from Mark, Merril and Ross:

The end result:

Some specifics:
We thought Wichita would get 6-8".  Officially at Mid-Continent Airport we had 8.7".  (Side note: I measured 7" of snow at my house.)

Salina: Forecast of 8-10".  10-11" reported in/around town.

Dodge City: Forecast of 3-6". 5.2" measured at the NWS office.

We were a little low on snowfall around Enterprise and toward the Topeka area, where amounts were 13-16"!!  We also ran a little low in that area southeast of Dodge City.  We're always striving to improve on the forecast though.  Snowfall forecasting remains a difficult challenge to say the least.

1 comment:

nila burch said...

Thanks you guys do a terrific job